Assessing the Effectiveness of Future Concepts in the U.S. Air Force

RAND researchers present a Future Logistics Concept Assessment Framework, which is a disciplined, systematic way to assess proposed future logistics concepts to meet the requirements of the National Defense Strategy. The idea is to reveal the most-promising concepts and prune the least promising before significant resources are invested. The methods outlined in this report should help the U.S. Air Force avoid regrets from pursuing future logistics concepts that eventually disappoint. But even sound ideas can falter if their advocates are not prepared to defend them. It is imperative that the U.S. Air Force successfully advocate for new concepts within government (and against the legacy concept that would be replaced). The arguments the framework produces also will be useful for justifying and defending budget positions once the concept is adopted. To ensure stable funding, the U.S. Air Force also will need to anticipate and address counterarguments for any future logistics concept that the Office of the Secretary of Defense or Congress might raise, show that the concept objectively provides the robustness needed during wartime, and show that its costs are affordable. Systematic, objective, and reproduceable analysis is essential to form these arguments. It is the goal of this report to provide a systematic way to inform these decisions.