China¿s Macroeconomic Outlook

This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing results from the ¿China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),¿ a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM, the research team forecasts Chinäs major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including GDP growth rate, CPI, PPI, investment in fixed assets, household consumption, imports, exports, and foreign reserves. Moreover, it simulates different scenarios to study the effects of macroeconomic policy on the Chinese economy. In addition to helping readers to understand Chinäs economic trends and policies, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand Chinäs economic performance; to forecast the major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy.