Modeling the NPA of a Large Indian Public Sector Bank as a Function of Total Assets

Scientific Study from the year 2011 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1, Dayananda Sagar College of Engineering (Department of Management Studies), course: Non Performing Assets, Banking, language: English, abstract: Non-performing assets (NPA) are the loans given by a bank or a financial institution where in the borrower defaults or delays interest and / principal payment. The management of NPAs therefore, is a very important part of credit management of banks and financial institutions in the Country. Currently NPA estimates in India are predominantly obtained from figures published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However it would be helpful for banks and financial institutions to have an estimate of the NPA as soon as loan amounts are disbursed. This study attempted to develop a predictive model for the NPA% at both the gross and net level from the total assets of one of India's largest public banks. A strong correlation was observed between gross and net NPA% and the total assets suggesting that estimates of gross and net NPA can be made from total assets. Linear and non linear models were fit to predict the NPA% from the total assets. A non linear model linking both Gross and net NPA to total assets provided the best curve fit and the least deviation from actual values. Thus by simply looking at the banks total assets an overall picture of the banks NPA level can be ascertained.

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas. He has several publications in the above areas.